Opportunity's for Global pharma

With its fast-growing, young population and projected  combined pharmaceutical market value of US$80 billion  in 2017, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) presents a great opportunity for the global pharma industry. A common market for financial services will be one of the major components of the ASEAN Economic Community when it takes effect at the end of 2015.

These markets are  developing at markedly different speeds and are characterized by contrasting macro-economic factors.

While  Taiwan and Singapore are both relatively small, with growth limited by the size of these island nations, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are fairly large emergent pharmaceutical markets, with large populations and steadily growing economies.

Despite concerns over counterfeiting and low efficacy of generic products, IPR protection and manufacturing standards are improving thanks to effective national regulations, foreign investment and joint-ventures with multinational companies. Malaysia and Vietnam are small pharmaceutical markets, typified by rapid economic growth, increasing foreign investment and support from national government. These five markets have significant OTC sectors and rapidly expanding generic sectors, and present previously untapped populations for potential foreign pharmaceutical companies.

With impressive economic indicators being tempered by the limited population size,the Singaporean pharmaceutical market to exhibit a high level of growth.   The volume of trade in pharmaceuticals flowing in and out of Singapore is disproportionately large compared with the size of the country, due to its status as a distribution centre. The country exports a large amount of pharmaceuticals, although the majority of this total is from re-exported goods.

Thailand's pharmaceutical market is estimated to grow at a low double-digit CAGR in US dollar terms between 2012 and 2017. Thailand will have the eighth largest pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region in 2017. In per capita terms, Thailand is projected to have the eighth highest rate in the Asia Pacific region by 2017.Thailand’s pharmaceutical market was valued at US$ 3.6 billion in 2011, with Thailand’s pharmacy market growing at a rate of 7.2 per cent .

India and other emerging markets

Economic Value derived above is based on dynamic assumptions which are likely to change during the course of development. Hence repeating this exercise at regular intervals is a prudent strategy.

Tornado  analysis is a tool used to identify the most impactful or most sensitive assumptions. Number of competitors in the market, probability of success, time to market launch and development costs are the key areas that companies should focus their energy on to maximize drug’s commercial potential.

Managing environmental challenges in India and other emerging markets, While the above process is fairly robust, the real challenge in developing drugs for emerging markets is the understanding of the local environmental and regulatory aspects.

 
Controlled pricing for patented products in India on the basis of procurement prices in UK, Canada, France, Australia, and NZ adjusted for per capita GDP ratio is under discussion by government authorities

Medicines Patents Pool (Gilead for HIV drugs) - voluntary patent licensing to generic companies in exchange for royalties is a new workaround to tackle stricter patent laws in India

Lack of clarity on Orphan status or Breakthrough designation viz-a-viz developed markets continues to be a challenge in designing clinical development strategy for emerging markets

Differential pricing both Inter and Intra country is a viable strategy being pursued for drug pricing in this part of the world. Compulsory Licensing of the patented drugs in countries like India, China, Brazil and Thailand is a known risk impacting the drug pricing.

Clinical trial cost escalations due to compensation issues, audio-visual informed consent and tighter pharmocovigilance cannot be undermined in expense estimations.