India and other emerging markets

Economic Value derived above is based on dynamic assumptions which are likely to change during the course of development. Hence repeating this exercise at regular intervals is a prudent strategy.

Tornado  analysis is a tool used to identify the most impactful or most sensitive assumptions. Number of competitors in the market, probability of success, time to market launch and development costs are the key areas that companies should focus their energy on to maximize drug’s commercial potential.

Managing environmental challenges in India and other emerging markets, While the above process is fairly robust, the real challenge in developing drugs for emerging markets is the understanding of the local environmental and regulatory aspects.

 
Controlled pricing for patented products in India on the basis of procurement prices in UK, Canada, France, Australia, and NZ adjusted for per capita GDP ratio is under discussion by government authorities

Medicines Patents Pool (Gilead for HIV drugs) - voluntary patent licensing to generic companies in exchange for royalties is a new workaround to tackle stricter patent laws in India

Lack of clarity on Orphan status or Breakthrough designation viz-a-viz developed markets continues to be a challenge in designing clinical development strategy for emerging markets

Differential pricing both Inter and Intra country is a viable strategy being pursued for drug pricing in this part of the world. Compulsory Licensing of the patented drugs in countries like India, China, Brazil and Thailand is a known risk impacting the drug pricing.

Clinical trial cost escalations due to compensation issues, audio-visual informed consent and tighter pharmocovigilance cannot be undermined in expense estimations.

India, China takes lead in Research

The softpower of the globe which was the preserve of the West of centuries is fast shifting to the East as emerging nations led by India and China are enhancing their science, education and technology policies says a research.

According to sturdy the country has seen whopping 146 per cent increase in its research output in the past decade alone, taking its globe share to 3.6 percent.

 Over the past decade the country has increased its scientific research output by a whopping 146 per cent and  account for 3.6 per cent of the total world share of researches increased of its world share by 1.1 percentage .

According to the report the country produced twice a many published research papers in 2012.  The study on G20 nations  compared the research and innovation land scape of the each nations and has found that the US and European Union have dropped in science and innovation impact, while Australia, China, India, France and Britain have gained influence.

China chemical industry - Growth

The China chemical industry is maturing and will grow at a much more settled pace than during the  previous boom years. This new but stable GDP growth rate of around 7 % , along with urbanisation, rise in domestic consumption, greater demand for auto and electronic products and ambitious sustainability targets will provide ample growth opportunities. KPMG estimates that this will enable the Chinese chemical industry to grow by between 9 and 11 percent in the period 2013 to 2015.

Despite strong and stable growth in chemical manufacturing, China continues to have a net chemical deficit and is heavily dependent on imported material. This dependency makes the sector vulnerable; it has been affected by price trends in the world market caused by renewed international demand for raw materials, petroleum and other chemical inputs since last year.

Boosting the consumption of natural/shale gas can help China develop its low-carbon economy. For the chemical industry, natural gas could be used to produce synthetic ammonia and methanol, bringing economic benefits 20-30 times higher than those generated by coal and petroleum. China has approximately 26 trillion cubic metres of  recoverable shale gas, close to America’s 28.3 trillion cubic metres.

The US produced 87.8 billion cubic metres of shale gas in 2009, and if China’s output could reach one third of that, its natural gas gap of 30 billion cubic metres could be bridged.32 However, technology is a precondition for success in this sector and China has a long way to go — it needs  to promote shale gas exploration, deepen basic research in geology and improve exploration technologies before it can harness the industry’s full potential.

A trend to watch out for is the way domestic companies deal with specialty sector demand, which has grown in a spectacular manner. In 2012, the gross production value of China’s specialty chemicals exceeded RMB 2 trillion, while total domestic output exceeded 100 million tonnes.

China imported about 10 percent of its specialty chemicals and more than half of its electronic chemicals in 2012, indicating  that there is still a lot of scope for internal growth. The priority of industry managers is now on developing: a) high- performance electronic chemicals and fluoro coatings and b) high-end specialty chemicals, such as safe food additives and feed additives, eco-friendly adhesives, plastics additives and water treatment agents.

Among all specialty chemicals, China is least self sufficient in electronic chemicals, which now represent an RMB 30 billion market that has room for further growth