During the last few decades, the market for agrochemicals has seen periods of growth as well as periods of decline. To a large extent, these market fluctuations are due to fluctuations in the weather and pest incidence. In some years, farmers need more crop protection chemicals than they do in others.
The long-term trend, however, is growth. The growth of renewable energy requirements and improving crop yields are two drivers of this but undoubtedly the key one is the growth of the world's population growth has accelerated significantly since the mid-20th century. The need for food is therefore increasing rapidly.
In 13 years from now, the world will need food for 1.1 billion more people than there were in 2010, a 16% increase. In 2050, 2.4 billion more people will need to be fed, a 35% increase.
In order to be able to feed all these people, some have estimated that the world would need additional arable land the size of India. Clearly that is not available. The only other way to try to feed all those people is via the intensification of agriculture, specifically in those areas where agriculture is still done in a very traditional way.
Intensifying agriculture and improving yields is a major challenge and it seems very unlikely that this can be done without the use of crop protection chemicals. As a result, the general trend for the agrochemicals market is continued growth, although fluctuations round the trend line will occur, due to external factors like the weather.
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