Geographic balance will continue to shift toward pharmerging
countries, which are expected to grow at a 14-17% rate through 2014,
while major developed markets will grow at 3-6%. The US will remain the
single largest market in the world with revenue just short of $400
million by 2014 while China will grow to become the world’s 3rd largest
market for pharmaceuticals during this period.
Therapy area growth will continue to be driven by innovation and
areas of unmet need. In the areas of oncology, diabetes, multiple
sclerosis and HIV, annual growth is expected to exceed 10% as new drugs
are brought to market, patient access is expanded and funding is
redirected from other areas where lower cost generics will be available.
Broad cuts in spending will be applied by public payers to publicreduce
growth in drug budgets. Publicly funded health systems are under
increased pressure to reduce growth in drug budgets following the global
economic downturn. Governments seeking to restore fiscal balance will
likely apply restrictions or reductions in reimbursements to reduce drug
spending.
Peak years of patent expiries will shift major therapies to generic
dominance. Products with over $140 billion in revenue will face generic
competition in the next five years with therapy areas like cholesterol
regulators, antipsychotics and anti-ulcerants being affected the most.
Closer scrutiny of new products will keep product launches in the
range of 30-35 products annually but these products will be subjected to
more rigorous and complex assessments by payers before being accepted
into clinical practice and reimbursed.
In moving beyond 2014 and leading up to 2020, IMS expects to see a
continuing shift toward biopharmaceuticals, specialty-driven products
and changes in the mix of disease areas of interest.
Discovery Search Partners has an outstanding performance record in
pharmaceuticals, biopharmaceuticals and specialty pharmaceuticals. We
have proven expertise across all functional areas, with possibly the
deepest experience in R&D where innovation is the critical
ingredient driving company success. Additionally, we have broad therapy
experience and can cite numerous placements of note in virtually all
therapy areas of interest.